I have, for the past two years, commented here on the strength, resilience and resilience of the US labor market. In a word, it was exciting, he went a long way to carry the entire economy on his shoulders, not the other way around.
Crisis after countless crisis has failed to bring the market down: Covid, war in Ukraine, inflation, supply issues, oversupply, insurgency, cryptocurrency chaos, you name it. And every month, in anticipation of the monthly employment report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the prognosticators went over themselves to be the first to predict the end of the holiday. Not me, I’m happy to say, but everywhere. So far they have all been wrong – every month.
Now I’m a little sad to say that something may be happening to us – X-factor – that could lead to the biggest job market downturn in history. But first remember three things:
- I am writing this on the 20th of January, about a week before you read it, and this X-factor may have passed, but it is also fragile and if not passed, it can be destructive.
- I am not making a prediction, but it is very possible.
- What I will talk about is human nature – and its variability and weakness – and not the usual, tangible, measurable factors that have defined all the above-mentioned crises.
The reason for this may be the answer to the debt and how to deal with it. No less than Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned of the possibility of a global financial crisis if we fail to raise the ceiling. Although settled in Congress before this release, the fight against it will affect stock and bond markets around the world, on hiring and staffing decisions, in venture capital, and so on. In other words, our labor market may be vulnerable. That was the trigger, but all other crises had their own, so what is different?
The answer, simply, is that in the face of all other challenges, we have all tried to work for our common interests, despite our differences – social, political, regional – and we are trying solve the problem. However, most of us.
The decision not to raise the debt ceiling, on the other hand, has no chance of working in our own interests, and using it as a pawn in a political chess game is very bad, not to mention war. . And this is not a political statement; Every economist in the world tells us this. We will start defaulting on our debt and – what if you did it on a mortgage or a car? If that happens, I’m afraid the first place the chaos will fall is in the labor market. This is very sad.
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Working against our own interests is the X-factor.
Individuals and self-made societies as a whole have unique characteristics, including: an innate drive toward growth and self-preservation; a clear and effective sense of reality and a good relationship with it; focus on the problem, having something outside of themselves that they consider a common mission; and a sense of peace and identification with the human race. For me, as a career coach and just an observer of the labor market, these qualities (and others) help to work in our own interests and, as a result, see the survival of the market. most powerful work in history.
To suggest otherwise is a disaster. Why is what we built falling apart? This, according to Abraham Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, will lead to regression rather than progress.
This is very sad.
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Now, with everything on the table and with my heart in my hand, I still think we have the problem here. I don’t think the walls of Jericho will fall. But will we see a problem? Yes. Will it expand? This is where we prove our humanity.
Meanwhile, in keeping with our self-preservation efforts, now is the time to ensure that your career materials – your resume and profile, your strategy, your network – are all, as Henry intended. David Thoreau said, “stored and ready to start.”
Otherwise, after two years of growing labor market and job performance, it’s sad.
Eli Amdur has been providing individual and executive coaching, as well as business leadership consulting since 1997. For 15 years, he taught graduate leadership courses at FDU. He has been a regular contributor to this and other books since 2003. You can reach him at [email protected] or 201-357-5844.