Slowly organizing & evolving Nicole as the storm turns toward Florida – Action News Jax

Jacksonville, Florida. – “Borsch’s Bottom Line”: Always be ready!…..First Storm Warning Survival GuideCity of Jacksonville Preparedness GuideGeorgia Hurricane Guide.

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Remember when a hurricane or tropical storm is approaching: taping the windows is *not* helpful and will not prevent the glass from breaking.

Understand that the forecast cone (“cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time – up to 5 days – and *indicates the width of the storm and/or damage that may occur.

*** Impacts from Nicole including extremely high risk of rip currents on NE Fl./SE Ga coasts. During this week…people living in or traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and the East Coast of the United States should stay informed. Latest predictions *** ….

The most unusual (unusual/rare) part of this storm is the potential for a relatively strong tropical system at relatively far northern latitudes for this late in the season in addition to a long period – ~5 days of onshore/offshore impacts. ..

Especially for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. (According to “Nicole’s” *current* forecast):

* Strong dry current This week will continue and get even stronger with life-threatening rip currents and generally hazardous sea conditions.

* surfing And the breakers will be in double digits by late Tuesday. & – at times – will be 12+ feet along area coasts starting Wednesday. Seas will be over 20 feet and very rough just offshore through Friday. All seagoing vessels must remain in port and vessels and equipment secured.

* St. Johns River – Potentially significant damage to docks and shorelines.

* Beach erosion It will become heavy to severe by mid to late week – an important aspect of the storm given Ian’s recent damage

* Winds From 15-25 mph – with higher gusts through Wednesday. AM – Increasing to 20-40 mph with 50+ mph winds late Wednesday. Coastal winds will reach 60 mph by noon Friday.

* Rainfall It will average 2-4 inches along the coast…1-3 inches+ inland

* Flood It will be a daily threat on beaches, especially at low tide – becoming more important each day this week. There will also be an astronomical increase due to the full moon phase starting on Tuesday. Ponding and—eventually flooding—also occurs along the St. Johns River and its tributaries.

* As Nicole moves south and then west of Jacksonville, There will be tornadoes and floods Threat late Wednesday and especially Thursday into Friday across NE Fl. & SE Ga.

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* Internal influences Wind, rain, flooding and tornadoes are likely through mid to late week. but It depends on the exact track and strength of the storm.

Low pressure – ’98-L’ It began developing in the southwestern Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and upgraded to a subtropical storm.NicoleEarly Monday, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic season, which is right on average. And close to the average November 19 from the occurrence of storm 14 named. When it comes to influences, don’t get caught up in the semantics of either subtropical or tropical, as Nicole gradually becomes fully tropical before reaching Fl. Late Wednesday into Thursday Initially – Nicole is clearly a subtropical system but should eventually become a fully tropical system given the very warm water from Fl. In addition to an upper ridge building near and north of the storm in the Bahamas, an upper-level depression helped spawn Nicole weaken and move away. This will be a fairly long process: developing slowly as a subtropical storm with frontal features and then becoming fully tropical (warm core) … before being steered west and southwest (deeper/stronger). And as the ridge gets stronger to the north while a trough moves into US Lower 48, creating the alley from Fl. By the end of the week, East Coast Landing will become a major “player” helping to dictate longer range moves and perhaps helping Nicoll’s strength.

Worryingly, conditions look set to strengthen once Nicole becomes tropical and tightens its circulation as the storm begins to move west/southwest. Cutting will decrease, humidity will increase and sea surface temperature will increase. are warm, including significant deep ocean heat content (warm water to deep depths). I have noticed several times over the past 20+ years that tropical storms moving/drilling in the southwest often intensify. It seems the greatest potential Wed./Thurs. By falling in Fl. Southeast coast early Thursday

Global forecast models are in fairly good agreement (for the storm early on and still a few days until better organization) with moving down the west/southwest…hitting south and southeast Florida…then west as the gulf Eastern or Fl. West Coast…before feeling the effects of a strong upper level depression that eventually picks up the storm and directs it north and northeast as it accelerates. The GFS is strongest with Nicole and therefore a bit faster to turn Nicole north. The European and UKMET models are weaker, taking Nicole into the eastern Gulf before a N/NW turn. All 3 models are similar in terms of timing. An approaching low later in the week should help “ventilate” the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere over Nicole, which should at least keep the storm around longer than normal. In addition, increasing southwesterly shear will be accompanied by Nicol movement, which will reduce the effect of increasing shear in the right quadrant of the jet stream front. As Nicole is captured by the trough and hooks up with a cold front, there will be a sub(non)-tropical transition that will then accelerate northeastward by the end of the week and move along the east coast of the United States. Dry air will spread quickly to the east “under” — to the south of — the Nichol Center, ending the rain with decreasing winds for NE/SE Florida at least Friday. Night/Saturday

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Nicole is expected to reach hurricane strength between the Bahamas and Florida. Should hit SE Fl. At least as a cat 1 hurricane effects are expected for all of Fl. Except for most of the Panhandle…plus the Bahamas + parts of the Carolinas and maybe in the long run as far north as the Chesapeake Bay and New England.

One thing is certain: there will be a long period – more than 5 days – of strong to very strong onshore currents … rough seas and surf with double-digit breakers on the coast … strong winds and – at times – gusts Heavy.. Rain, sometimes heavy. It seems *right now* that the peak of these effects will be from Wednesday. The exact details will be somewhat fuzzy and very fluid through Saturday, and there will be changes in forecasting the exact amount and timing of impacts, but Nicole is undoubtedly a significant storm, at least for the east coast from Florida to the Carolinas.

Stay up to date across Fl. and much of the southeast coast of the United States and the Bahamas.

Spaghetti designs for Nicole – including group models (NOAA: Addresses fundamental uncertainties in the input data such as limited coverage, instruments or observation biases of the systems and limitations of the model itself. GEFS accounts for these uncertainties by generating multiple predictions, which in turn generate a range of potential outcomes based on differences or perturbations applied to the data after it is included in the model. Each forecast compensates for a different set of uncertainties):

Spaghetti plot for ‘97-Lwhich will remain open over the North Atlantic but may briefly become “Owen”:

Let’s do a little “review”:

Shear is currently strong over much of the southwest Atlantic at 30+ mph. However, the upper-level atmosphere will undergo significant changes over the next 5 days, including less shear and a building upper-level ridge in the northern low. At the same time, a strong upper-level depression will dig into the central US and eventually into the eastern US. The addition of upper-level ventilation from the trough may help intensify the storm, or at least sustain it as it eventually accelerates to the northeast. Following this trough, there will be a serious invasion of cold air across the Lower 48 as the tropical system appears to be the catalyst for a pattern change reminiscent of the 2005 Wilma that reached Fl. Oct. 24 and was followed/led by a deep depression moving along the Lower 48.

The water vapor gyre shows pockets of dry air (dark blue) across parts of the Atlantic basin along with high circulation (low pressure) with bands of higher moisture near and ahead of fronts – common as we go deeper. autumn. Nicole will battle a lot of dry weather through at least midweek.

Radar images from the water management area of ​​S. Florida (the purple line is Nicole’s forecast path):

The origin of the November tropical storm:

The following averages are based on Atlantic basin climatology through November:

Wind shear:

Desert dust is blown from Africa every year by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic Ocean). Dry air – yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust indicates dry air that can prevent tropical storms from developing. However, sometimes the “Want to Be” waves just wait to get to the other side of – or away from – the column, then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, there is a lot of talk about the presence of desert dust and how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we have several large dust plumes spread west into the Caribbean and the Gulf, with desert dust peaking usually in June and July.

2022 names….. “Owen” is the next name on the list for the Atlantic Ocean (names are chosen randomly by the World Meteorological Organization…repeat every 6 years). Historic storms have retired [Florence & Michael in ’18… Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is infamous with “Charlie,” “Francis,” “Jean” and “Evan” retired from the 2004 list (all in Florida) and “Matthew” retired in 2016. The WMO decided – as of last year – that the Greek alphabet would no longer be used and instead there would be a supplementary list of names if the first list was exhausted (it has only happened three times – 2005, 2020 and 2021). Tropical cyclone naming began consistently in 1953. More information on the naming history of tropical cyclones *here*.

Eastern Atlantic Ocean:

Analysis of mid- and upper-level wind shear (enemies of tropical cyclones) (CIMMS). Red lines show strong shear:

Images of water vapor (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep ocean heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean and deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temperature anomalies:

Surface map of the SE US:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic Ocean:

Persian Gulf surface analysis:


GFS wave forecast in 48 and 72 hours (2 and 3 days):

Atlantic basin wave period prediction 24, 48 and 72 hours respectively:

Eastern Pacific Ocean:

Western Pacific:

Global tropical activities:


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