Meat bans and ‘un-Brexit’? One bank’s ‘outrageous’ 2023 predictions

Saxo Bank’s “dire predictions” for 2023 include a ban on meat production, rising gold prices and Britain voting “no Brexit”.

The annual report of the Danish bank, published earlier this month, expects the global economy to move to a “war economy” mode, “where economic benefits and autonomy in globalization.”

The forecast, although not representative of the official view of the bank, looked at the possible impact of policymakers’ decisions in the next year on the global economy and political agenda.

The gold reached $3,000

Among the bank’s “outrageous” calls for next year, Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen predicted that spot gold prices could top $3,000 per ounce by 2023 – around 67% higher than the current price of $ 1,797 per ounce.

The report attributes their rise to three factors: “a growing economy” that makes gold more attractive than foreign exchange reserves, major investment priorities on national security, and increasing global liquidity as policymakers try to avoid a debt crisis. recessions.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see a commodity-driven economy wanting to go to gold for lack of better alternatives,” Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on December 6.

“I think gold will fly,” he added.

While analysts expect gold prices to rise in 2023, the magnitude of the increase is unlikely, according to global intelligence firm CRU.

“Price expectations are more moderate,” Kirill Kirilenko, senior analyst at CRU, told CNBC.

“A less hawkish Fed could lead to a weaker USD, which could give gold bulls more room and energy to rally next year, pushing prices closer to $1,900 an ounce ,” he said.

But Kirilenko pointed out that it all depends on the actions of the Federal Reserve. “Any increase in ‘hawkishness’ from the US central bank could force gold prices lower,” he said.

Britain will vote to cancel Brexit

The “shocking prediction” that could happen next year, according to Saxo’s Jakobsen, is that there will be a referendum on Brexit.

“I think it’s one of those things that could happen,” he told CNBC.

Saxo market analyst Jessica Amir said that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt may take the Conservative Party rating as “rare” because the “program -brutal currency plunges UK into recession.”

This, according to bankers, could push the English and Welsh people to reconsider the Brexit vote, with younger voters, and force Sunak to call a general election.

Saxo’s Amir says the opposition Labor party is likely to win the election and is promising a referendum to reverse Brexit on November 1, with a “re-in” vote winning. .

“Businesses are saying that the only thing they will get from Brexit is the UK-specific GDPR,” Jakobsen Saxo told CNBC. “The rest is just increased,” he said.

Anand Menon, director of the UK department of the changing Europe, said that “this prediction just doesn’t count.”

“I don’t think there will be another referendum and the opinion about it [Labour leader Keir] Starmer will take that position for the bird,” he said.

Starmer told a business conference in September that his party would “make Brexit work.”

Public sentiment about Brexit has changed since the referendum, Menon said, following the vote in which a majority of voters voted to leave the EU in 2016.

“Obviously, public opinion seems to be changing,” he said.

Research by YouGov in November showed that 59% of the 6,174 people surveyed thought Brexit would be “very bad” or “very bad” by the end of 2020, while 2 Only % said it went “very well”.

Meat production is prohibited

Meat is responsible for 57% of emissions from food production, according to research published by Nature Food, and with countries around the world making commitments to of net-zero, Saxo says that at least one country could completely cut meat production.

A country that “looks ahead” to climate permits could decide to pay a lot of meat from 2025 and could completely ban meat from all domestic animals in the year 2030, said Saxo market expert Charu Chanana.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see schools in Denmark and Sweden completely ban meat, it’s definitely going to happen,” Saxo’s Jakobsen told CNBC. “It seems crazy to us old people,” he added.

The UK, EU countries, Japan and Canada are among the countries that have unlimited legal guarantees.

The UK’s Department of Food and Agriculture said it had “no plans” to introduce a meat tax or ban meat production when contacted by CNBC.

Emotions 2023?

Some of the other “shocking predictions” for the coming year from Saxo include the resignation of French President Emmanuel Macron, Japan pegging the yen to the US dollar at a rate of 200 and the military formation of the European Union.

The prediction should be taken with a grain of salt, however. Saxo’s Jakobsen told CNBC that there is a 5-10% chance that each forecast will come true.

The bank has been making a series of “dire predictions” every year for the last decade and some have come true – or at least come close.

In 2015, Saxo predicted that the UK would vote to leave the EU after the UK Independence Party collapsed, predicting that Germany would enter recession in 2019 – which rejected by the narrow country – and he bet that bitcoin will experience a meteoric movement in 2017.