England’s predictable World Cup results suggest beating France would be a surprise

The most enigmatic team at the 2022 World Cup was clearly Japan. They were eliminated in the second round, and in the main records two wins, one draw and one loss, on paper quite remarkable.

The specificity of course comes from evaluating their results against their own opponents. Japan’s scores were essentially a mirror image of what to expect. They beat Spain and Germany — two of the top six favorites heading into the competition — but Costa Rica, the 32nd favorite, could lose. It was curious, like a consequence of a consequence, and yet that kind of situation throws up football regularly. There are, perhaps, lots of supporters of Japan saying “it’s typical of us” and “we never do the easy way”. The kids are always going to have fun playing football.

Historically, though, England have been the complete opposite of Japan at World Cups. They’re not an incredibly underrated England outfit that failed the big boys, then flopped against the Leucists. They are very simple and do exactly what you expect. Do not sway against the small sides. They prepare the sides of the people in favor of the skirts harder. Serious competitors tend to be the first to eliminate their opponents.

To prove this idea, we can compare England’s World Cup results with the position of their opponents in the FIFA World Cup of all seasons. Those regulations are not perfect and since they were introduced in the early 1990s, they have only been used as a measure since the 1998 World Cup. But that still has a ratio of 32, a decent ideal.

Here, in chronological order, are the results. The color coding is simple, green for wins, orange for draws, red for losses. The strength of the opposition is marked in red for a team with a single-figure ranking, in orange for a side between 10th and 19th, and in green for a team 20th or below. The penalty for losing is marked with an asterisk, the penalty for winning archers is given by two asterisks.

Also Read :  Iga Swiatek makes honest admission regarding shock loss to Aryna Sabalenka

England World Cup results, 1998-2022

A year

Adversary

Rank

Results

1998

Tunisia

25

2-0

1998

Romania

13

1-2

1998

Colombia

17

2-0

1998

Argentina

5

2-2*

2002

Sweden

19

1-1

2002

Argentina

3

1-0

2002

Nigeria

27

0-0

2002

Denmark

20

3-0

2002

Brazil

2

1-2

2006

Paraguay

33

1-0

2006

Trinity and Tobacco

47

2-0

2006

Sweden

16

2-2

2006

Ecuadorian

39

1-0

2006

Portugal

7

0-0*

2010

USA

14

1-1

2010

Algeria

30

0-0

2010

Slovenia

25

1-0

2010

Germany

6

1-4

2014

Italy

9

1-2

2014

Uruguay

7

1-2

2014

Costa Rica

28

0-0

2018

Tunisia

21

2-1

2018

Panama

55

6-1

2018

Belgium

3

0-1

2018

Colombia

16

1-1**

2018

Sweden

24

2-0

2018

Croatia

20

1-2

2018

Belgium

3

0-2

2022

Iran

21

6-2

2022

USA

15

0-0

2022

Cambria

18

3-0

2022

Senegal

20

3-0

This table is sortable on the desktop. If you click on “rank”, you can order those 32 games by world order of opposition. When you do that, a pretty obvious pattern emerges. When in England against “green” opponents, they usually win. When their opponents look “robust”, they usually lose.

And here is the key to whether the two types match. Three rows of pink indicate the number of results you expect, four rows of silver show something surprising, and two rows of blue indicate how many real crops have been made.

And of those 32 matches – World Cup 1998 – 22 (69 per cent) took place in England, which is exactly what you’d expect given the strength of the opposition.

There were three occasions when England came up against weak opposition and only drew – all 0-0. The first was indeed a perfectly good result, as a goalless draw against Nigeria in 2002 meant England was the most suitable stage for the knockout stage, the third in 2014 in Costa Rica was essentially dead, as England had already been eliminated and the reserve side had been released. . Therefore, the draw, only 0-0 with Algeria in 2010 can be considered a really poor result.

The only time England completely overpowered against weak opposition (on paper) came in the semi-final of the last World Cup. Croatia ranked only 20th in the world, and England were beaten in extra time. Perhaps such a ranking slightly underestimates Croatia’s quality, but it does illustrate just how simple England’s road to the final was.

In eight matches against the “orange” opposition, England has five quite certain. Positive results came against Colombia in 1998 and in Wales this year. The wreckage reached the hands of Romania in 1998.

And in nine matches against the opposition “red” England only one – the victory of the group against Argentina in 2002 won 1-0, by David Beckham, the penalty won by Michael Owen is sick. Athletic columnist Mauricio Pochettino.

In fact, there have also been two final defeats on penalties against serious opposition, against Argentina in 1998 and Portugal in 2006. So if you count those games as losses, England have lost eight of their nine matches against top-ten opposition. FIFA rankings have been introduced.

Also Read :  Ronaldo v Messi – the absurd timeline of how they have driven each other to break records

What is the reason for the model? Maybe it’s a stupid question, asking for a reason to believe that things are generally going to happen. But the experience of Japan (as well as Spain and Germany) shows that this is not always the case. England do not suffer defeats as ugly as Argentina’s against Saudi Arabia, nor do they face stronger opponents in the way that Belgium, for example, did against Brazil four years ago.

Perhaps England comes down to it, imperial, always rather beige. The highest risk are not attacking sides who produce numbers and leave themselves exposed at the back – that type of approach probably increases the chances of an offensive result.

Equally flexible sides are not usually the ones who vary their approach in the approach of their opponents. Teams that work from the back of the opposition are often effective at blunting strong sides, but lack the positive identity to break down weaker opponents.

England are always just; their approach to their players. Tactical talent is rarely enough to defeat a stronger party, but individual quality is usually enough to defeat weaker opponents. He did not look well ahead of the meeting against the preferred quarter of France, and perhaps showed that some tactical flexibility, and a dulling of the opposition’s focus, was in order.

(Top image: Harry Kane reacts to Croatia’s elimination in 2018, photo: Manan Vatsyayana/AFP via Getty Images)



Source

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Related Articles

Back to top button