Dow Jones Futures Due: Market Rally Faces Big Test; Apple Leads 4 Dow Stocks In Focus

Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally held a level of support from last week. Now can the S&P 500 move above its 200-day moving average in the coming days and weeks? apple (AAPL) could be the key.


Apple’s stock has maintained a significant level and has steadily increased even as the overall market has retreated. Like the S&P 500, the tech titan iPhone is retracing its 200-day line. A decisive move above this level may provide a buying opportunity. But another decline could provide another opportunity to short AAPL stock.

At the same time, a partner of Dow Jones Boeing (BA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and GS stocks have been quietly moving for the past several weeks, helping to lift the Dow in its current rally. Technically BA stocks are around normal sales. Goldman Sachs (GS) is building a deep base while JPM stock still has work to do.

Dow Jones Futures today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

Remember that overnight movements in Dow futures and elsewhere do not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next trading session.

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Stock Market Rally Analysis

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose less than 0.1% in market trade last week. The S&P 500 index was down 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite was down 1.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 yielded 1.75%.

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On Tuesday, November 15, the S&P 500 briefly hit 4,000, nearing its 200-day moving average. This level is important because the benchmark index retook just 1 point from its 200-day line on August 16, creating another leg in the bear market.

A decisive move above the 200-day line, which also coincides with the upward trend line from the January 4 high, could be a strong signal that the rally is more than a rally in the the bear market.

The S&P 500 clearing the 200-day line could also be a good platform for large-cap stocks, which are struggling near the stock market.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 dipped below its 200-day line last week but could retrace that level ahead of the S&P 500. The Dow Jones, supported by Boeing, Goldman and JPMorgan stocks much better than the 200 day. But clearing last week’s highs would bring the Dow back to 34,000 and below the August peak.

The Nasdaq, weighed down by strong growth, is 8.3% below its 200-day line. Last week’s highs could be a good first step. Also good: The 21-day moving average broke above the 50-day line on Friday.

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Thanksgiving week isn’t necessarily a good time for a big market event. The market will be closed on Thanksgiving with a half-day session on Friday. Volume may be light during the week. Next week ends with a bang. On December 1st, investors will get the October PCE inflation data, along with the ISM’s November manufacturing index. On December 2nd, the November employment report. This news can have a significant impact on expectations of Fed rate hikes, funding and stock prices.

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So it wouldn’t be surprising to see a major index trade in one sector over the coming weeks. There’s nothing wrong with a little boost to the big indexes and big stocks.

Apple Stock

Apple stock rose 1.1% last week to 151.29, following an 8.2% spike last week. The share held the 50-day moving average, with the 21-day line set to reach the 50-day mark. AAPL stock is below its 200-day line. The giant Dow hit a 200-day high on Oct. 28 after earnings. But it turned out to be a good time to go short, with shares plunging in the next few days to their worst close since mid-June.

A decisive move above the 200-day line, perhaps clearing the October 28 high of 157.50, would offer early entry into the lower base from August 17. shorting opportunities.

Apple’s success or failure of the 200-day line can be the key to the S&P 500’s own performance, and vice versa.

Boeing Stock

BA stock fell 2% to 173.89, after a 47% run over five weeks. While the Dow Jones aerospace giant turned lower on October 26 on earnings, the shares bounced back, especially with a skewed financial guidance a few days later.

Technically, Boeing stock has fallen below 173.95. But the stock is 9.5% above the 200-day line and 19.5% over the 50-day. A break around the current level could create a safer buying opportunity.

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Boeing is expected to turn a profit in 2023, ending four years of losses.

Goldman Stock

GS stock fell 1.55% to 379.20 last week. On the daily chart, the share is extended from the price of 358.72 cups in a larger consolidation. On the weekly chart, Goldman stock has a buy point of 389.68 from a one-year basis, according to MarketSmith analysis. But after a 28% profit during the four-week winning streak, it was very small. Longer and deeper handles may help, and let the 50-day line close the gap.

The relative strength is at a four-year high, reflecting the performance of Goldman’s stock against the S&P 500. The RS line is the blue line in the chart provided.

JPM stock price history

JPMorgan stock fell 1.1% to 133.84 last week. That’s after a 29.5% advance in six weeks. The division is above the 50-day and 200-day lines, but there is work to be done. JPM stock can form the right side of a long and deep consolidation, or it can form a lower base.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in tune with the direction of the market and stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market reforms and more.


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